Introduction to Sports Gambling 1.1. Similarities and Differences Compared to Traditional Gambling Sports gambling is a form of betting similar to traditional probability games such as roulette, dice, or cards. The result of a sports bet is settled based on the outcome of a sporting event on which none of the betting parties has any. This review of Statistical Sports Models in Excel by Andrew Mack was written by Matt Haynes (10-year veteran sports trader and currently head trader at Trade on Sports, stats nut and odds monkey) The opening chapter whets the appetite nicely for what’s to come, no delusions of grandeur just straight talking and most importantly for me as this book is. The best / easiest ways to get data in Excel are through the 'Data' tab on the menu bar in Excel. For the purpose of this model, I'm going to use the NBA as the sport I'm focusing on. Now, first we need to find a webpage that is always kept up to date and that holds tables of data on the NBA. Excel Sport Templates Enjoy our library of 28 sport templates created by passionate sport enthusiasts. World Cup, COPA, UEFA, FIFA, Olympics, European Soccer League, Formula 1, Nascar. Whether it’s soccer or gold, tennis or badminton, we’ve got some neat excel spreadsheets to help you following your favourite sports and teams. Sports gambling is a form of betting similar to traditional probability games such as roulette, dice, or cards. The result of a sports bet is settled based on the outcome of a sporting event on which none of the betting parties has any influence. In traditional gambling, the probability of events can be calculated.
Do you know why the house always wins eventually when it comes to casino games? With casino games, we are able to solve for the probability of any given outcome mathematically.
So, when you spin a roulette wheel, there’s a 1-in-38 chance of the ball landing on the number that you bet. The casino sets the odds so that correct picks pay out 36-to-1, and so the math works out in such a way that the house always has a significant advantage over the gamblers.
Fortunately for sports bettors, the probability of winning or losing a sporting event is less certain. Numerous factors influence the outcome, and without having definite expectations determined by the number of cards or dice, sportsbooks are forced to try and set the odds based on their own research.
Furthermore, when the bookmaker sets their line, they aren’t trying to accurately predict the probability of each outcome happening.
A sportsbook’s goal when they set the odds of a contest is to entice bettors to place an equal amount of wagers on each side, guaranteeing the book makes a profit.
So once they’ve crunched the numbers and predicted the probability of each outcome happening, they adjust the odds to bring in action on both sides. The odds that are set then carry a certain implied probability, which is the number we base our wagers on.
In order to become a successful sports bettor, you must do your own statistical analysis. The goal is to identify variables that have a strong influence on the outcome of a contest or event and calculate your individual probabilities for each possible result. The last step is to compare your percentages of likelihood against the implied expectations set by the bookmaker.
Winning sports gamblers only make a wager when a bet has positive value. A gamble is said to have value when the implied probability based on the odds is a lower percentage than the likelihood you calculated from your own analysis.
That’s the whole name of the game; if your math says that Team A will win this contest 45% of the time, but the odds mean Team A would only need to win 20% of the time to break even, that’s bet has value.
But how do we accurately determine the probability so that we have a number to compare against the odds? We have to create betting systems based on statistical analysis and probability distributions. This guide is meant to help you understand how handicapping is done and get you started.
Do you know why the house always wins eventually when it comes to casino games? With casino games, we are able to solve for the probability of any given outcome mathematically.
So, when you spin a roulette wheel, there’s a 1-in-38 chance of the ball landing on the number that you bet. The casino sets the odds so that correct picks pay out 36-to-1, and so the math works out in such a way that the house always has a significant advantage over the gamblers.
Fortunately for sports bettors, the probability of winning or losing a sporting event is less certain. Numerous factors influence the outcome, and without having definite expectations determined by the number of cards or dice, sportsbooks are forced to try and set the odds based on their own research.
Furthermore, when the bookmaker sets their line, they aren’t trying to accurately predict the probability of each outcome happening.
A sportsbook’s goal when they set the odds of a contest is to entice bettors to place an equal amount of wagers on each side, guaranteeing the book makes a profit.
Excel Betting Sheet
So once they’ve crunched the numbers and predicted the probability of each outcome happening, they adjust the odds to bring in action on both sides. The odds that are set then carry a certain implied probability, which is the number we base our wagers on.
In order to become a successful sports bettor, you must do your own statistical analysis. The goal is to identify variables that have a strong influence on the outcome of a contest or event and calculate your individual probabilities for each possible result. The last step is to compare your percentages of likelihood against the implied expectations set by the bookmaker.
Winning sports gamblers only make a wager when a bet has positive value. A gamble is said to have value when the implied probability based on the odds is a lower percentage than the likelihood you calculated from your own analysis.
That’s the whole name of the game; if your math says that Team A will win this contest 45% of the time, but the odds mean Team A would only need to win 20% of the time to break even, that’s bet has value.
Sports Betting Excel Template
But how do we accurately determine the probability so that we have a number to compare against the odds? We have to create betting systems based on statistical analysis and probability distributions. This guide is meant to help you understand how handicapping is done and get you started.