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Every game has a Favorite and Underdog associated with the Money Line Odds and the plus (+) and minus (-) symbols are used to differentiate the teams. For NBA money line odds, it s a simple math formula that s based on $100 wagers. Toronto -400 (Bet $100 to.
For the uninitiated, betting on the money line simply means betting on which team you think will win the game. The money line is adjusted based on the spread to help books mitigate risk.
For example, a favorite of four points in the NBA might have a money line of around -184. This means you would need to wager $184 to win $100 if you bet on that team to win.
For underdogs it works a bit differently. A 4-point underdog in the NBA would have a money line listed at about +150. What this means is that you would win $150 for every $100 wagered on this team if they were to win the game outright.
Converting NBA Spreads to Their True Money Lines
What I’m really interested in is whether or not money line betting in the NBA is profitable. I went back over the results of over 20,000 games to find out how teams have performed on the money line. I wanted to see if it’s worth taking at any different spreads.
The chart below shows what the money line for NBA games at each spread should be based on the results of over 28,000 NBA games. It is important to note that these are the fair market values for each money line. Sportsbooks don’t offer fair market odds (otherwise they’d find it difficult to turn a profit). This way we can use the data to identify potential opportunities to take the money line when it is not properly priced. Since we have taken their built in edge out of each probability, we can feel confident that we are getting real value if the money line posted at our book is better than the price in the chart.
The more common the spread, the more accurate the expected win percentage is going to be. We have excluded spreads with less than 100 games to look at, but in reality you are better off considering those with a sample size of 500 or more games.
Point Spread to Expected Win % & Money Line
The table below shows this information in more detail, including how often the favorite and underdog win outright at a given spread, then converting it to a win percentage and using that probability to create a true money line value. Books aren’t stupid, so it’s not common to find value on a regular basis across the board, however, there are some books that are not as sharp as others, or that must compensate for public action on one side and are forced to over adjust one way or the other. This are the situations that are best suited to use this data.
LineGamesWinsLossesFav Win %Dog Win %Fav MLDog ML-1110554256349.05%50.95%+104-104-1.5105054450651.81%48.19%-108+108-2151583268354.92%45.08%-122+122-2.5147888159759.61%40.39%-148+148-3167196071157.45%42.55%-135+135-3.5157296760561.51%38.49%-160+160-4160698562161.33%38.67%-159+159-4.51632105258064.46%35.54%-181+181-51617106055765.55%34.45%-190+190-5.51483100647767.84%32.16%-211+211-61514108343171.53%28.47%-251+251-6.5139599639971.40%28.60%-250+250-71379102835174.55%25.45%-293+293-7.5118188629575.02%24.98%-300+300-8114089824278.77%21.23%-371+371-8.5100079220879.20%20.80%-381+381-999081317782.12%17.88%-459+459-9.577563514081.94%18.06%-454+454-1075764411385.07%14.93%-570+570-10.56235467787.64%12.36%-709+709-115785037587.02%12.98%-671+671-11.54654085787.74%12.26%-716+716-124403875387.95%12.05%-730+730-12.53353072891.64%8.36%-1096+1096-133583203889.39%10.61%-842+842-13.52432281593.83%6.17%-1520+1520-142592411893.05%6.95%-1339+1339-14.5157152596.82%3.18%-3040+3040-15137130794.89%5.11%-1857+1857-15.5107102595.33%4.67%-2040+2040Spread to Moneyline Conversion
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There are sports in which the Cinderella story is every fan’s delight. Basketball is not one of them.
Not only do fans want to see established hoops heroes collect championships, but bettors tend to pick favorites a lot more than the underdogs…especially newbie gamblers.
Many people see teams favored to prevail by a set number of points, and instantly think that the team is a lock. They focus on whether or not the favorites will cover the points, disregarding that the underdog could finish on top on the scoreboard altogether.
It should come as no surprise that as a team is favored to out-score its opponent by greater points, the higher the probability becomes that they will prevail outright. Before you look at the charts (if you haven’t already), guess which percentage among favorited teams triumph when they are favored by 3.5 points. Once you have that number, look below at our table and see if you were close. Most of the general public will completely overshoot the %.
NBA Moneyline Conversion – Implied Outright Winning % by Spread
| Favorite | ML | Winning % | Underdog | ML | Winning % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | -115 | 51.10% | 1 | -104 | 48.90% |
| -1.5 | -121 | 52.30% | 1.5 | -100 | 47.70% |
| -2 | -132 | 54.30% | 2 | +109 | 45.70% |
| -2.5 | -143 | 56.30% | 2.5 | +118 | 43.70% |
| -3 | -156 | 58.20% | 3 | +129 | 41.80% |
| -3.5 | -170 | 60.10% | 3.5 | +140 | 39.90% |
| -4 | -184 | 61.90% | 4 | +150 | 38.10% |
| -4.5 | -199 | 63.60% | 4.5 | +162 | 36.40% |
| -5 | -222 | 65.80% | 5 | +179 | 34.20% |
| -5.5 | -247 | 68.00% | 5.5 | +198 | 32.00% |
| -6 | -276 | 70.10% | 6 | +219 | 29.90% |
| -6.5 | -309 | 72.10% | 6.5 | +243 | 27.90% |
| -7 | -349 | 74.20% | 7 | +270 | 25.80% |
| -7.5 | -397 | 76.30% | 7.5 | +302 | 23.70% |
| -8 | -458 | 78.40% | 8 | +341 | 21.60% |
| -8.5 | -536 | 80.50% | 8.5 | +388 | 19.50% |
| -9 | -656 | 82.80% | 9 | +456 | 17.20% |
| -9.5 | -832 | 85.20% | 9.5 | +545 | 14.80% |
| -10 | -1069 | 87.30% | 10 | +651 | 12.70% |
If your guess was close to 60%, then you have a pretty good understanding of what it means for a side to be favored by only 3.5. Those of you who guessed a lot higher than 60%? Don’t fret. It is a very common mistake. Now, guess what percentage of 3.5 ATS favorites actually cover. Check your answer with the table below.
Actual Winning Percentage by Spread in Basketball
| Favorite | Winning % | Underdog | Winning % |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 45.40% | 1 | 52.00% |
| -1.5 | 48.10% | 1.5 | 51.90% |
| -2 | 49.50% | 2 | 46.70% |
| -2.5 | 46.90% | 2.5 | 53.10% |
| -3 | 48.50% | 3 | 47.20% |
| -3.5 | 46.50% | 3.5 | 53.50% |
| -4 | 52.80% | 4 | 45.30% |
| -4.5 | 50.40% | 4.5 | 49.60% |
| -5 | 46.00% | 5 | 49.50% |
| -5.5 | 51.30% | 5.5 | 48.70% |
| -6 | 50.60% | 6 | 45.80% |
| -6.5 | 50.80% | 6.5 | 49.20% |
| -7 | 47.20% | 7 | 48.10% |
| -7.5 | 52.30% | 7.5 | 47.70% |
| -8 | 53.10% | 8 | 43.80% |
| -8.5 | 50.80% | 8.5 | 49.20% |
| -9 | 50.20% | 9 | 46.40% |
| -9.5 | 51.40% | 9.5 | 48.60% |
| -10 | 44.70% | 10 | 52.80% |
It might not be a huge surprise that 3.5-point favorites only prevail in 60% of games played, but the fact that they don’t even cover 50% of those games should be. Most gamblers assume that when a team has been favored at 3.5-points they are likely to cover.
Nba Moneyline Results
In reality the underdog not only covers, but prevails on a scoreboard in 40% of contests played. The cash player can be tricked into taking small favorites because of how much the line is over-valued. If I had asked what percent of 10-point favorites prevail outright, your guess would have likely been a lot closer to the actual number.
Nba Moneyline Betting
Remember, a sporting event may pit 2 teams with disparate records and publicity. But it’s still a contest between 2 opponents on the same college or professional level.
Nba Moneyline Odds
Always give the ‘dog a thorough evaluation. There’s often value to be had.