- 2017 Home Run Derby Odds For Today
- 2017 Home Run Derby Odds
- Home Run Derby 2017 Participants
- 2017 Mlb Home Run Derby
It's pretty easy to go into the T-Mobile Home Run Derby and simply assume that the first few rounds are merely a prelude to the inevitable Aaron Judge vs. Giancarlo Stanton matchup that everyone expects. After all, the bracket is aligned so that Stanton is No. 1 and Judge is No. 2, ensuring any showdown between the two would have to take place in the final, and it's so obviously the pairing. Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas is not one of the favorites to win the Home Run Derby, which is Monday at 7 p.m. Betting odds for 2017 Home Run Derby The Kansas City. Stanton betting favorite on 2017 Home Run Derby odds. By OddsShark July 10, 2017 / new. Kershaw, Dodgers favored over D-Backs on Tuesday. By OddsShark July 4, 2017 / new.
The 2017 Home Run Derby arrives at Marlins Park on Monday night and it promises to deliver plenty of long balls. Defending champion Giancarlo Stanton enters as the co-favorite with New York Yankees star masher, Aaron Judge (both at +200 at Bovada), giving MLB fans two of the most explosive bats in the game today.
Heading into the event, it certainly feels like this is a two-man race. Stanton won in 2016 and will be able to defend his crown at his home park, while Judge comes in ready to steal his crown. Judge has delivered a masterful rookie campaign, blasting a MLB-leading 30 home runs in the first half of the 2017 MLB season, along with the longest deep bomb of the season.
2017 Home Run Derby Odds
Is it really as simple as Stanton vs Judge, though? Probably, but we still get a loaded field with potent bats like Gary Sanchez, Justin Bour, Mike Moustakas, Miguel Sano, Cody Bellinger and Charlie Blackmon all vying for that coveted HR Derby crown.
Here’s the latest 2017 HR Derby odds to win, per Bovada:
- Giancarlo Stanton – Marlins (+200)
- Aaron Judge – Yankees (+200)
- Cody Bellinger – Dodgers (+650)
- Miguel Sano – Twins (+700)
- Gary Sanchez – Yankees (+1200)
- Charlie Blackmon – Rockies (+1400)
- Mike Moustakas – Royals (+1400)
- Justin Bour – Marlins (+1400)
This is a talented field, to be fair. However, it does feel a little top-heavy. Stanton is the defending champ and he’s at home, where he’s blasted 13 of his 26 long balls in 2017. That’s pretty impressive considering this is not a park known for home runs, and is traditionally a pitcher-friendly stadium.
The obvious reason behind Stanton’s ability to defy this park is his sheer power, as well as his seemingly effortless swing. That combination led to a HR Derby record 61 homers last summer and undeniably has Stanton entering Monday night’s dong fest looking like a serious contender to repeat as the home run king.
He has some stiff competition, of course. Aaron Judge has just as pretty of a swing, leads all of baseball in homers (30), launched the longest homer of the 2017 season earlier this year and also has the strongest average exit velocity (97.2) of anyone in the majors.
Viable Sleepers
Picking between Stanton and Judge is probably where we should spend most of our time, but it’s important to also consider which other options in this field are worth betting on.
Based on production, talent and odds, this field offers us some interesting bets via Cody Bellinger (25 homers), Miguel Sano (2nd in average exit velocity) and Mike Moustakas (27 HR).
You honestly could make a case for anyone in this field, of course. Justin Bour would have more jacks if he didn’t miss some time with injury and he sports fun +1400 odds as his home park. Charlie Blackmon isn’t at Coors Field but has as much upside as anyone, while Gary Sanchez is 7th in average exit velocity.
Of the other options, however, Moose might stand out the most. He’s been on an insane tear over the past month and he’s done a good amount of his damage (9 HR) at a tough park in Kauffman Stadium. He’s also just flat out on fire at the moment, ripping off an insane 6 long balls in his last 10 contests alone.
That kind of groove needs to be monitored when preparing for a rhythm contest like the HR Derby, and with those +1400 odds, Moose comes in as our favorite high upside sleeper.
First Round Matchups
Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. We’ve still got a lot of mashing ahead of us before we get to the final round, which could still very well pit Judge and Stanton against each other. The bracket is certainly set up that way, with each hitter being granted a seed and Judge and Stanton (#2 and #1, respectively) residing on opposite ends of the HR Derby bracket.
Here’s how the first-round matchups are slated to set things up, along with their odds (per BetOnline) and our personal predictions:
- Cody Bellinger – Dodgers (-260)
- Charlie Blackmon – Rockies (+165)
Our first matchup is between the rookie Bellinger and Blackmon. Blackmon is the veteran and offers more value, but Bellinger has been on quite the tear in his first stop in the majors. He isn’t getting us value here, but it’d be fairly shocking to see him get ousted in round one.
- Aaron Judge – Yankees (-350)
- Justin Bour – Marlins (+260)
2017 Home Run Derby Odds For Today
I’d probably prefer slightly more upside if I’m taking Bour to upset Judge right away. Bour is at home and can mash as well as anyone, but putting him up against one of the favorites to win right away feels like a reach. We’ll side with Vegas and logic here.
- Miguel Sano – Twins (-185)
- Mike Moustakas – Royals (+155)
Sano sports the second best average exit velocity in the majors, but he benefits from a better park than some of the top contestants here – specifically his first-round threat in Moustakas. Moose has better numbers and comes in in a much better groove. That, combined with the upside he offers at +155 makes him too fun to pass up here.
- Giancarlo Stanton – Marlins (-350)
- Gary Sanchez – Yankees (+260)
Just like I’m not a huge fan of attacking Judge in round one, I’m probably not burying the defending HR Derby champ after just one round, either. Sanchez is actually a worthy competitor here and he’s not a bad flier bet, but Stanton feels like a lock to at least get through the first matchup.
Most Home Runs in Round One
We also get to bet on who will hit the most homers in the first round. We tend to see the top batters mash more long balls early on, as they’re competing to not be among the first people cut and they also have the most energy at that point.
Bovada offers us a similar round one matchup bet, but they also specifically ask us which batter will hit the longest balls. We’re really just making the call in each individual matchup, but the one that stands out the most is Mike Moustakas (+160) versus Miguel Sano (-175). Sano is favored against Moose, but Moustakas has plenty of power and comes in far hotter.
For the flat out round one winner, we’d roll with Aaron Judge (-325).
HR Derby Prop Bets
We’ve looked at the top 2017 Home Run Derby favorites, our top HR Derby sleepers and how the first round might play out. Now we can turn our attention to some of the best Home Run Derby prop bets we can get our hands on at Bovada and other MLB betting sites:
Longest HR in Round One
Aside from the top sleepers and who could win, fans will really be pining for which masher will launch the longest deep ball. Here are your bets for round one:
- Aaron Judge (+160)
- Giancarlo Stanton (+200)
- Charlie Blackmon (+550)
- Miguel Sano (+600)
- Mike Moustakas (+1000)
- Cody Bellinger (+1000)
- Gary Sanchez (+1600)
- Justin Bour (+1600)
2017 Home Run Derby Odds
Obviously the two most dangerous mashers remain Judge and Stanton, so in the vain of getting you upside, we’re not targeting the obvious here. Both are worth a pick and Vegas is understandably siding with Judge, who leads the league in average exit velocity and owns the longest HR (495 feet) of the year.
But who could be the best value bet outside of the two main favorites? Blackmon has the third longest dong of this field on the year, but he’s benefited immensely from hitting at Coors Field with the high altitude. He’s viable, but we want even more playability. Bour, Moose and Bellinger all are viable tries, too, but the data doesn’t really back them like it does for Sano and Sanchez.
Sano and Sanchez also both benefit from great parks, but that doesn’t really dictate their average exit velocity. Sano ranks 2nd in that department and could easily send the longest homer deep in round one. However, when we look at power and odds, Sanchez offers the most profitable bet. To be clear, the smart money probably resides with Aaron Judge and we’d drop a bet for him and Stanton. If you want one high upside flier bet, though, Sanchez takes the cake for us.
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AL vs NL
If you’re not into putting all of your eggs into one basket, you can stretch things out by siding with the National League or American League. The AL is putting up Judge, Sanchez, Moustakas and Sano, while the NL is putting up Stanton, Bour, Bellinger and Blackmon.
Home Run Derby 2017 Participants
This still isn’t an easy bet, as Stanton and Judge are co-favorites per Bovada and are still on opposite sides of this bet. Here are the latest odds, with Bovada refusing to take sides:
- AL Player to Win (-115)
- NL Player to Win (-115)
2017 Mlb Home Run Derby
The upside probably lies with the American League overall, but Judge is our favorite (and most everyone’s) to win and our favorite sleeper is Moose. It’s a 50/50 bet, but we’d roll with the AL side. This same bet offers a little more upside at BetOnline, where you can get the NL at +100. We still prefer Judge and the AL side, however.
Who Will Get to the Finals?
The other big bets lie with each player and their chances to make it to the HR Derby Finals. Here are each player’s Yes/No odds at Bovada:
- Aaron Judge (Yes -140, No +110)
- Charlie Blackmon (Yes +500, No -800)
- Cody Bellinger (Yes +250, No -325)
- Gary Sanchez (Yes +500, No -800)
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yes -150, No +120)
- Justin Bour (Yes +550, No -900)
- Miguel Sano (Yes +300, No -400)
- Mike Moustakas (Yes +450, No -650)
Obviously most MLB betting sites love the prospects of a Judge vs. Stanton finals matchup. It’s the most marketable finale and it boasts the two best home run hitters in this field, realistically.
That’s no lock, so we do need to consider other options. The big bets could be on Judge and Stanton advancing to face each other, but we can also hedge with a couple of flier bets. The most attractive ones are Charlie Blackmon, Gary Sanchez and Mike Moustakas. Miguel Sano doesn’t offer nearly the same upside and Justin Bour faces a brutal path, as he’d have to get past Aaron Judge in round one and then fend off either Cody Bellinger or Charlie Blackmon to reach the finale.
Of this second tier, Moose remains our favorite sleeper, but we don’t mind taking these odds with Blackmon, who gets to face a rookie in round one. If he gets to that second round, all you’re doing is hoping he can get one round further. The fact that you’re getting +500 odds for Blackmon to simply get to the finals is probably too good to pass up.
Stanton and Judge deserve the heavy betting here, but betting against them with “no” bets feels like a waste of time. I’d bet on them and then toss some flier bets on Blackmon and Moose, namely Blackmon.
2017 HR Derby Prediction
This year’s Home Run Derby obviously gives way to plenty of excitement, anticipation and loads of betting opportunities. Depending on where and how you bet, you could make an already amazing MLB All-Star event even better.
I think the best path to winnings is still banking on Judge and Stanton proving their worth and getting to the finals. There are some serious threats in this field, but they’re the best HR mashers in this crop and it’d be a mild upset for both to not get to the finals.
This is Stanton’s house and he won last year, but repeating as HR Derby champion is no easy task. We saw Yoenis Cespedes do it in 2013 and 2014, but we’ve only seen a repeat Home Run Derby winner one other time in the event’s history (Ken Griffey Jr. in 1998 and 1999). Stanton is certainly a threat to become the third hitter to accomplish the feat, but if he ends up facing off with Judge, as Vegas projects, I think the Yanks slugger gets the best of him.